{"id":4107,"date":"2025-09-03T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-09-03T11:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rithum.com\/?p=4107"},"modified":"2026-03-02T16:45:22","modified_gmt":"2026-03-02T16:45:22","slug":"early-starts-tight-wallets-what-back-to-school-signals-for-the-holiday-season","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rithum.com\/blog\/early-starts-tight-wallets-what-back-to-school-signals-for-the-holiday-season\/","title":{"rendered":"Back-to-school shopping trends signal earlier, budget-conscious holiday buying"},"content":{"rendered":"Reading Time: <\/span> 3<\/span> minutes<\/span><\/span>\n

Back-to-school (BTS) shoppers started earlier, spent more cautiously, and favored targeted value over blanket discounts. Back-to-school shopping was a stress test for holiday readiness. Here\u2019s what the data tells us, and how to respond.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Back-to-school sales: what changed and why it matters\u00a0<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

BTS shopping kicked off early this year, with 67% of K-12 and college shoppers already starting shopping by early July\u2014the biggest early start since NRF began tracking the back to school<\/a> season. Tariff-related price increases were a big driver, with half saying they moved faster into buy mode to avoid those hits.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Families planned to spend $858<\/a> on average for K-12 (down from 2024), but total K-12 spend prediction ticked up to $39.4B, signaling more shopping despite tighter wallets. This might be because there\u2019s not a ton of choice: if your kid needs new shoes for school, it\u2019s not a discretionary purchase (vs. the holiday season, when gifts are not thought of as the same level of necessity). Online remains the top choice for 55% of consumers<\/a>, with discount stores getting more traction as shoppers looked for value over loyalty.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Households are distinguishing \u201cneed\u201d vs. \u201cwant,\u201d<\/a> more than ever, expecting uneven price increases as tariffs and cost-of-living costs roll through the commerce world. More deal hunting, more shop-hopping, and more comparison across big events is the norm.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

These patterns\u2014early research, cart building, and channel switching\u2014mirror what we saw over the big summer sales events, and what we told you to prepare<\/a> beforehand. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

That discretion has also affected buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) usage, which is rising into late summer. Consumers spent $7.8 billion via BNPL in July, up 16.6% yoy<\/a>, a clear signal for Q4 budgets, according to Adobe Business. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Key differences in 2025 back-to-school shopping<\/h2>\n\n\n\n